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  New Math: The Mayor's Race as Brutal Calculus Exam
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Two weeks and two days from now, Los Angeles will have its next mayor.

Based on Mayor Jim Hahn's four years of near absenteeism from the leadership duties of the office, his administration's penchant for triggering corruption investigations and his love of venal election-season gestures, it's plain that we can't vote in good conscience to re-elect him. Los Angeles deserves far better.

The question is whether Antonio Villaraigosa's a morally and politically significant alternative. I'm not the most astute political writer, so here's the kind of struggling, sophomoric nonsense I found myself banging out way too late last night in a feeble effort to make sense of the choices ...
POWER
Okay, whip out your calculators. The arithmetic in the Los Angeles mayoral campaign got pretty Byzantine over the past two weeks, particularly this weekend, and it'll take some pretty fancy figgerin' to determine who's going to win ...

Let's see: Given that Antonio Villaraigosa found that having solid supporters in Miami might help him buy more campaign ads. Add the coefficient of an official inquiry by the D.A..

Now, deduce the polynomial of the ever-important see- I'm- taking- my- hand- OUT- of-the cookie- jar gesture to disinherit all those concerned Miamians-for-Los Angeles (Friday).

Square this by the same-news-cycle endorsements of the rather gushy Daily News (which probably steamed more than a few white-flight types in the more conservative Valley neighborhoods) ...

... and multiply by a big hug from the 2004 loser in the presidential race, for whose campaign Villaraigosa spent most of the late autumn ignoring his own council district. (Don't forget to deduct the product of this equation from the total ...)

Okay, set that calculation aside, but be prepared to go back to it in a minute to check your figures.

On Mayor Jim Hahn's side of the triple-beam balance scale (wait, is this calculus or chemistry?) sit the three simultaneous investigations into improper spending by his administration and people connected with his campaigns; along with the string of zeroes and Xes representing the other things he should have done to address traffic, business development and retention, public transportation, etc. Don't forget the botched biotech billions theorem, of course.

Check the hypoteneuse of his rather sad attempt at flinging himself at the Christians, but make sure to factor in his rather conveniently timed WiFi launch (way to make L.A. look more forward-thinking in a single afternoon than you managed during an entire four uninspired years, Jim); and the cosine of his triumphant opening of the Mission LAPD station as part of his struggle to make the Valley forget all about that silly secession thing that he helped pound into an early and well-deserved grave.

Now, multiply the result by the variable emotion of Valley voters, in that if they're pissed enough about the DN endorsement of Antonio and the thought of a non-white mayor, (don't forget to check this proof using the extremely complex racial bias formula) they might ...

No, wait, I've got that wrong - I'm forgetting the whole calculus of voters smart enough to equate manufactured character flaws with racial bias on the part of the person presenting them, as well as the variable values of non-racially motivated voters offsetting the ...

Nuts. I've been up cramming too late and I'm starting to lose it. I can't drink any more coffee because my pencil keeps snapping. Plus, I've run out of fingers and toes to count on. Can I borrow yours? No, no, go ahead and take your shoes and socks off, we're going to need as much help as we can get to figure this out before May 17.

Or maybe if you just lift the corner of your paper, so I can peek at your next L.A. Times poll ...
As you can see, I don't know much about calculus, either.

This is about as clear as I can get: In the end - barring truly scandalous revelations of some kind - Antonio Villaraigosa has the momentum and the will of a majority of voters behind him.

He'll win whether or not he's truly deserves to be L.A.'s mayor, because he's played the game well: Attack the incumbent; build a multi-ethnic, pan-geographic coalition; gather troops and donations for the campaign psy-war; secure popular endorsements; cover himself in the clinches (read: the debates, although that's debatable); and get the voters off their apathetic backsides and out to the polls in his favor.

The question we should be asking ouselves - and Villaraigosa - is whether he'll stay long enough in City Hall to be effective without getting distracted by a shiny big office one rung up in Sacramento or Washington, DC. Will he listen to smart people with ideas for moving this city forward?

Or are we gonna get what CD14 got?

Anyone else care to take a stab at handicapping this race and ADV's commitment to Los Angeles?


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Posted by: mack_reed on Monday, May 02, 2005 - 07:50 AM  
 
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