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The Times Poll (finally): Hahn's Fate & Other Surprises
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2395 Reads
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Hahn's approval rating. (Image linked from the Times) |
This only partially confirms what I was saying a couple of days ago - Hahn's in trouble but there's no clear frontrunner in the race for the March 8 mayoral election, according to the L.A. Times poll just posted this morning.
But while Hahn and Antonio Villaraigosa are neck and neck at 21% and 20% respectively, big-spending Bob Hertzberg (whom I wrongly put among the top three) is a whole percentage point behind battlin' Bernard Parks. The councilman and ex-chief is in third with 13% to Hertzberg's fourth-place 12%.
The Times poll also said that fewer than half the 2,045 adults interviewed said that Hahn was sufficiently honest to continue as mayor, while Villaraigosa was ranked honest enough by 50%, Parks by 52%, Hertzberg by 36% and Alarcon by just 33%. And again, 48% said they disapproved of the job Hahn's doing, while 44% said they approved and just 8% said they don't know ...
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If the Times poll is anywhere close to a good indicator of the will of L.A. voters, then Villaraigosa's camp will be crowing, Hertzberg's people will be sweating and strategizing, Parks' campaign staff will wake up and begin paddling harder, Alarcon's folks will make good on his rumored intention to drop out and Hahn's people - well, they'll just stay the course and hope their $2.4-million war chest can buy some damned effective anti-Antonio spots.
Again.
There's also some evidence that Hahn squandered whatever support he had from the African-American voters who thought they were really putting Kenny Hahn's little boy into office - barely a quarter of the Black voters polled said they'd vote for him next month.
Other armchair analysis of the poll's raw numbers: Hertzberg's suffering from lack of resonance, not lack of approval: 34% said they had a favorable impression, only 7% said they had an unfavorable impression and fully 47% said they weren't aware. Not clear from the infographic whether that means their unawareness applied to their impression of Bob, or to his very existence.
Meanwhile Hahn went 51%/41% favorable/unfavorable: Parks was 51% and 33%; and Villaraigosa was 55% and 21%.
But go ahead and read the Times piece for yourself, particularly the wording of the poll. Numbers in polls are never nearly as interesting as the way questions were asked:
The largest number of people who said they approve of the way Hahn's doing his job (25%) couldn't give a reason, while 33% of the disapprovers said they had "doubts about ethics."
Well, before too long, we should be able to hear about Controller Laura Chick's controversial 12-page off-duty report aaallll about that topic.
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| Posted by: mack_reed on Sunday, February 06, 2005 - 12:52 AM
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