Just 31 days from now, you won't have but one of these guys to kick around any longer. More likely, two.
But in the meantime, is the L.A. mayoral race narrowing amid all the noise?
Wise voters are advised to grab shovels and hip-waders against the foul-smelling tide of news, arguments, accusations and advertisements that began to surge this week from the top five money-raising campaigns.
On the brink of next Monday's debate before a panel of Neighborhood Council members, which will probably demolish any pretentions to etiquette, tact and nuance in campaign discourse, here's what's being said by and about the men who would be L.A.'s next chief exec. Ask yourself who you'd vote for today ...
Mayor Jim Hahn - drowning in union endorsements for which he doubtless sold his soul and much of the city's bargaining power for keeping costs down - is watching his carefully constructed image as apathetic, harmless cypher-in-chief unravel like a pitbull puppy's favorite chew toy.
The gnawing's coming from several fronts:
The City Ethics Commission is examining charges that Hahn's campaign staff had a hand in a 2001 mailer attack against then-chief rival Antonio Villaraigosa.
One of his appointees is accused of hosting a fundraising breakfast, in violation of laws forbidding city commissioners to raise money for city campaigns.
He was slammed in absentia at a candidates' forum - the latest in a string of such bash-Hahn fests that he has allowed to happen simply by failing to show up.
I feel as though I should hold up a little RoadRunner sign here while Wile E. Coyote beats himself up: "GRUESOME, AIN'T IT?"
And he was backstabbed with a poison blade last week when City Controller Laura Chick and her staff - working on their own time - drafted a 12-page report and gave private briefings to his four main opponents on Hahn's alleged role in the Fleishman-Hillard billing-fraud scandal.
On the line-out side, the Hahn campaign hasn't issued any major statements since its so-so Web site won some award two weeks ago.
Bob Hertzberg is having delusions of grandeur. His latest, slickly produced TV spot shows him striding around Los Angeles 70 feet tall, peering in school windows like some jovial Godzilla. Resting his hand on a public school's cute little tiled roof with all the gravitas of a giant jesus, he proclaims, implausibly, "I will break up LAUSD."
Admirable goal, but completely outside the scope of a mayor's power. It's like me declaring that I will make all cellphones used by anyone driving above one mile an hour turn into chocolate eclairs. Nice idea. Not gonna happen.
Meantime, the video (titled "Big Steps") and the airtime to date probably cost double the $36,100 Hertzberg raised in January, which is why his latest fundraising letter is begging for another $50,000 to air it.
Hertzberg is easily the hardest-working of the candidates - Steve Lopez' thoroughly amusing profile had the Times columnist bumping around town in the wake of the ebullient candidate, who comes off like a cross between the Tasmanian Devil and the Care Bears. Sorry, but a man who declares "Can you imagine me on caffeine?" invites cartoonish comparisons.
But he's still speaking in platitudes, if you read Rick Orlov's coverage of yesterday's candidate forum in the Daily News.
Villaraigosa, who lost to Hahn four years ago, said he will bring a new sense of purpose to the city, and will bring caring and consensus-building to the job.
"I believe in this city. I believe in the people who live here," Villaraigosa said. "I care about what happens. I still believe in what John F. Kennedy said: 'Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.'
"I don't believe there is a government program for every answer. If you see a problem, roll up your sleeves. Mentor a child. Plant a tree. I think people are looking for someone who cares and who can build consensus.
Villaraigosa 2005 run has been pooh-poohed as lacking the fire of his near-victorious 2001 mayoral bid. But he raised more money last month than any of the other candidates (with the exception of the lackluster campaign of Bernard Parks) and his appeal to a broad base of supporters, Latino and not, shouldn't be discounted.
Bernard Parks, after mysteriously stomping his competitors in the latest round of fundraising reports, seems to have fallen short of crafting a compelling, sound-bite-worthy message beyond "safe streets, no corruption at City Hall and elect me instead of Jim Hahn."
Parks' sole appearance in Patrick McGreevy's report on the debate in today's Times show his identity as a little more than a would-be incumbent-topper, as unable to distinguish himself to voters as a positive choice as John Kerry was: I'm not saying that Hahn will slide back into office on Parks' lack of focus, merely that Parks hasn't distinguished himself in the mediasphere - despite intelligent, thoughtful statements at past debates - as a man with anything more in his hip pocket than a vendetta against Hahn:
Citing the investigations into contracting at City Hall, Parks said Hahn has failed to lead by his own example. "I think we need a different brand of leadership in the city," the South Los Angeles city councilman said. "We need leadership where there is character."
Parks, the city's former police chief, also accused the mayor of squandering millions of dollars on raises for city employees that could have paid for more police.
True. And? Doubtless, Parks had plenty more to say in the course of the debate, but if his quote is any indication, it apparently didn't make much of an impression on McGreevy.
If he's gained any traction with voters, they're certainly not repaying him from their wallets. His populist views might just get inundated by media-powered rhetoric from the other camps in the coming deluge of campaign spots. At a debate on Valley issues Monday at Monroe High, he's quoted:
Alarcon said he would seek a change in the City Charter to allow neighborhood councils a final say in planning issues.
"The problem we have with our system is not the planning process, it's that we have a system run by variance," Alarcon said. "What we need to do is create a democracy where people feel they have control."
He's still happy to play the un-moneyed outsider on his own dime (a $100,000 loan to his own campaign, for which he has taken a sabbatical from his lawyering work) and push issues that may or may not go too far in a Democratic town: He takes some easy stances against government waste and subtle bribery (code word: "pay-to-play"), illegal immigration, LAX expansion, crime and taxes.
But his platform seems full of opposition and short on advocacy beyond enlarging LAPD, establishing dog beaches (on what few shreds of coastline actually belong to the city) and the unlikely scenario of stripping away unneeded spending enough to support a repeal of the business tax.
The GOP, apparently unwilling to endorse him, hasn't bothered putting anyone up against him, either.
Predictions?
I've no poll data, only a hunch. But for what it's worth, this has become a three-way horse race. Hahn's going to try to survive the March 8 election, but it's hard to say whether he'll be facing Hertzberg or Villaraigosa in the runoff - or sitting home in San Pedro licking his wounds while the other two slug it out.
Here's the debate schedule:
Feb. 7: The Alliance of Neighborhood Councils convenes NC members at CBS Television City in the Fairfax district to question the candidates. Moderators will ask follow-ups.
Broadcast: KCAL 9, 8 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.
Reservations: Neighborhood Council chairs are handling requests by NC members to join the audience.
Feb. 28: The Alliance hosts a second debate, same place, same audience/panel, different time and broadcast arrangements.
Broadcast: KCBS 2, 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Reservations: Same.
